Thursday, February 26, 2009
Baseball's Back
The sound of Charlie and Dave is music to my ears... Its good to have baseball back...
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Gotta Start Somewhere
Well... I've been meaning to start up a blog for a while now. If you wander by here you'll get a variety of Washington DC and Virginia Tech related sports news and musings. I'll start with something that's been bugging me about the Washington Nationals preseason hype.
I have seen a variety of suggested Nats lineups that tend to look like this:
6 - Guzman
3 - Johnson
5 - Zimmerman
7 - Dunn
9 - Dukes
8 - Milledge
2 - Flores
4 - Hernandez
That makes little sense to me. Guzman has a career 0.307 OBP and has only once drawn over 30 walks in a season. Zimmerman, while he has shown an ability to drive in runs, does not get on base enough to be considered an average #3 hitter. This lineup makes much more sense to me (Career AVG/OBP/SLG):
8 - Milledge (.262/.329/.407)
9 - Dukes (.235/.359/.443)
3 - Johnson (.269/.396/.456)
7 - Dunn (.247/.381/.512)
5 - Zimmerman (.282/.341/.462)
6 - Guzman (.270/.307/.386)
2 - Flores (.252/.301/.387)
4 - Hernandez (.232/.283/.292)
This allows for some speed and on base at the top of the lineup. I don't think Milledge is definitely the best option to lead off but classic logic tells us that a leadoff man has to be fast. I would love to have Johnson starting off 40% of the games on base but that's just not in the cards. That said, Milledge has some on-base skills in his career (.330 is minimum for a passable leadoff guy but its much better then .307). He'll be followed by Dukes who showed patience, athletecism, and power during parts of last year. Johnson will get on base. That leaves men on for Dunn to either move forward with a walk, leave standing around with a K, or bring home with a bomb... no problem either way. Zimmerman has never been an ideal 3 hitter, we just haven't had a passable lineup... ever... so that's where he's hit. I think moving him to the 5 hole would challenge him to improve and give him increased RBI opportunities.
I really think that if this lineup could hold up for a third of the season (not totally unreasonable although probably farfetched) then Zim could pass his career high of 110 RBI. After Zimmerman its pretty much cannon fodder. The assumption is that none of these guys should be hitting anywhere near the top of a major league lineup and I'd love for them to prove me wrong. Who knows, maybe Flores will break out (I hope so) and Hernandez and Guzman will prove last year was no fluke (I doubt it).
I have seen a variety of suggested Nats lineups that tend to look like this:
6 - Guzman
3 - Johnson
5 - Zimmerman
7 - Dunn
9 - Dukes
8 - Milledge
2 - Flores
4 - Hernandez
That makes little sense to me. Guzman has a career 0.307 OBP and has only once drawn over 30 walks in a season. Zimmerman, while he has shown an ability to drive in runs, does not get on base enough to be considered an average #3 hitter. This lineup makes much more sense to me (Career AVG/OBP/SLG):
8 - Milledge (.262/.329/.407)
9 - Dukes (.235/.359/.443)
3 - Johnson (.269/.396/.456)
7 - Dunn (.247/.381/.512)
5 - Zimmerman (.282/.341/.462)
6 - Guzman (.270/.307/.386)
2 - Flores (.252/.301/.387)
4 - Hernandez (.232/.283/.292)
This allows for some speed and on base at the top of the lineup. I don't think Milledge is definitely the best option to lead off but classic logic tells us that a leadoff man has to be fast. I would love to have Johnson starting off 40% of the games on base but that's just not in the cards. That said, Milledge has some on-base skills in his career (.330 is minimum for a passable leadoff guy but its much better then .307). He'll be followed by Dukes who showed patience, athletecism, and power during parts of last year. Johnson will get on base. That leaves men on for Dunn to either move forward with a walk, leave standing around with a K, or bring home with a bomb... no problem either way. Zimmerman has never been an ideal 3 hitter, we just haven't had a passable lineup... ever... so that's where he's hit. I think moving him to the 5 hole would challenge him to improve and give him increased RBI opportunities.
I really think that if this lineup could hold up for a third of the season (not totally unreasonable although probably farfetched) then Zim could pass his career high of 110 RBI. After Zimmerman its pretty much cannon fodder. The assumption is that none of these guys should be hitting anywhere near the top of a major league lineup and I'd love for them to prove me wrong. Who knows, maybe Flores will break out (I hope so) and Hernandez and Guzman will prove last year was no fluke (I doubt it).
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